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This site is purely informational. We aim to create a place where seismologists, geophysicists, geologists, and the general public can exchange ideas.. Please send contributions to admin@earthquakes.gs

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Earthquake Forecasting

Some seismologists believe that earthquake forecasting is a real scientific phenomenon. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, scientists can predict from the foreshock and the aftershock.

The foreshock gives a 50% probability that another larger quake will be coming soon. Once a foreshock is felt, seismologists study to find out how eminent a larger quake is.

The aftershocks can also be very devastating. Seismologists have been a bit better at prediction the aftershocks magnitude and number of occurrences. This can help determine whether areas are safe to go into after a main shock.

The thing that is most difficult to predict (nearly impossible) is to know exactly when and where the next major occurrence will be. That is something scientists are still trying to figure out. Seismologists have been quite good at figuring out where quakes will occur, but are particularly bad at predicting when. For an interesting workup on the forecasting involved in the California Quakes, please visit http://quake.usgs.gov/prepare/factsheets/QuakeForecasts/


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